Gold prices pulled back as the US Dollar corrected higher as the markets digested the prior day’s dramatic Fed-inspired selloff, undermining the appeal of anti-fiat alternatives epitomized by the yellow metal. Crude oil prices marked time, consolidating in a narrow range after touching a four-month high in the wake of supportive EIA inventories data.
From here, the preliminary set of March PMI surveys from the Eurozone and the US are in focus. These are closely watched as timely indicators of the global business cycle, making them particularly pertinent now as investors fret about a broad-based slowdown. Outcomes echoing the tendency toward disappointment in recent news-flow may weigh on investors’ mood, making for a broadly risk-off bias.
Bellwether European and US stock index futures are pointing conspicuously lower in late Asia Pacific trade, seemingly reinforcing the probability of such an outcome. If it materializes, gold may find a degree of support as bond yields drop. Gains may be capped if the Greenback manages to capitalize on haven-seeking capital flows. Cycle-sensitive oil prices may be in for a more straight-forward decline.
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Gold prices stalled at resistance in the 1302.40-12.83 area, with overall positioning still hinting that a Head and Shoulders top might be in the works. A daily close below neckline support at 1282.11 confirms the setup and initially opens the door for a test of the 1260.80-63.76 zone. Alternatively, a breach of resistance exposes a minor barrier at 1326.30, followed by February’s swing high at 1346.75.
Crude oil prices stalled ahead of resistance marked by the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 60.45. Breaking above this barrier initially exposes the 50% level at 62.28, though the more defining upside threshold is a bit further ahead in the 63.59-64.43 area. Alternatively, a reversal back below the 50% Fib retracement at 59.63 puts the 57.24-88 zone back into focus.
--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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